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When Amazon.com Inc.’s two-day Prime Day event kicks off on Tuesday, some things will be the same. Customers are still battling inflation and looking for deals. Walmart Inc. WMT, +0.53% and Target Corp. TGT, -1.01% have already thrown their own discount bonanzas in an effort to lure shoppers. And even as Prime Day spurs a broader online-spending wave, there are also signs that Amazon’s AMZN, -0.91% slice of the pie — at least for online spending on big summer bargains — might be shrinking ever so slightly.

Other things might be a bit different than in years past. The social-media platform TikTok has launched its first-ever Deals For You Days shopping event, which started on July 9 and will run through July 17. The online mega-discounter Temu is also holding its Temu Week through July 18, offering markdowns as deep as 90%. Amazon is also offering more discounts on cruises and car rentals.

Either way, Adobe ADBE, +1.19% on Monday said it expects shoppers to spend a record $14 billion online at U.S. retailers on Tuesday and Wednesday, a 10.5% jump from last year’s Prime Day, helped by deeper discounts and the timing of the event this year, which lands closer to the back-to-school season.

“We look broadly across U.S. retail (as opposed to any individual retailer), and the main difference we see this year is the scale of discounting,” Vivek Pandya, director of digital insights at Adobe, said via email.

“Retailers saw what happened in the last holiday shopping season, where discounts drove volume in an environment where consumers are more cautious with their spending,” he added. “They are using a similar strategy for this event, where in a major category like electronics, we see discounts peaking at 22% compared to 14% last year during the Prime Day event.”

Still, eMarketer, in a report this month, said it expected sales growth at Amazon, at least, to slow from last year over the course of the event. And while the research firm said that sales at Amazon would account for a bit more than 59% of overall online spending during the two days, that’s fractionally lower than in previous years.

“The cooling trends suggest that U.S. shoppers may be reaching a saturation point in their willingness to spend significantly more during the retailer’s tentpole event,” Sarah Marzano, an analyst at eMarketer, said in that report.

That assessment comes as blowout seasonal-discount events increasingly blend together, as July’s discounts carry consumers into the back-to-school season and the back-to-school season glides into the ever-elongating promotional ramp-up to the holidays.

Groceries, meanwhile, are still more expensive than they were several years ago, crimping spending on things like electronics, clothes and home furnishings. Temu has emerged as a bigger rival to Amazon. And even as TikTok faces a possible ban in the U.S., online influencers play a bigger role in consumer purchases.

TikTok, in announcing its Deals For You Days last month, said it that brands like L’Oreal and Maybelline would offer deals on TikTok Shop, an e-commerce segment of the site that was introduced in September. The event will feature live shopping events, and offer discounts on beauty products, books and other items.

The Prime Day event is Amazon’s 10th. It will offer Prime members “millions” of deals across more than 35 categories, according to an announcement from Amazon last week. The deals, Amazon said, include up to 50% off some Sony speakers and 30% off some Coach handbags. Elsewhere, the event will offer savings of up to 40% for Carnival cruises, and up to 30% for Avis car rentals.

“In our view, this year’s press release was more focused on early access deals and discounted services than last year, which could pull forward some sales out of Prime Day(s),” BofA analysts said in a note Monday. “Since July 8, Prime members have had early access deals inspired by influencers, and savings on participating [third-party] websites via Buy with Prime.”

JPMorgan analysts said shoppers were still staying cautious on purchases, and they expect e-commerce growth in the U.S. to slow through this year. But they said Amazon’s delivery infrastructure and innovations like its AI shopping assistant Rufus would help demand.

They also said Prime Day’s impact could linger after Wednesday, adding: “We believe Prime Day’s financial benefits extend well beyond the two-day event period.”