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Thus far in 2024, U.S. equities have picked up where they left off in 2023, with mega-cap tech stocks and the Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) dominating. Year-to-date, the index is up a healthy 6.42%, carried by breathtaking gains in the top AI-related stocks. Nvidia (NVDA), the leading semiconductor, is up a robust 43.94% in just over a month – not bad when you consider the stock has a market cap of more than $1.7 trillion. Meanwhile, Super Micro Computer (SMCI), an AI server provider, is up a shocking 132.39% in 2024 and nearly seven-fold in the past year!

Investors who have been around the block on Wall Street understand that, eventually, the music comes to an end. Conversely, experienced investors realize that trying to call tops in the market is akin to trying to hit a piñata blindfolded – it’s not easy to do. So, what are savvy investors to do?

· Interpret, don’t predict: Savvy investors don’t get ahead of themselves but instead size up the current market and determine whether the risk-to-reward is favorable.

· Be Aware of FOMO: The emotional game of trading should never be underestimated. If you let your emotions get the best of you and suffer from “Fear of missing out,” you are sure to get burned at some point.

· Manage open positions: If you have an open winner in a stock like SMCI, understand that you do not have to be “all or none” but can rather sell a piece and scale out of the stock methodically.

With the above in mind, below are three reasons to be cautious about equities in the short-term, including:

Seasonality

Stock market seasonality refers to recurring patterns or trends in equity prices that occur during specific times of the year, influenced by factors such as holidays, economic cycles, or election years. Over the last handful of years, seasonality has been wildly accurate, so it’s worth paying attention to. During the typical election year, stocks ramp higher in January before putting in a short-term top in February. Finally, stocks bottom in mid-March before ramping into year=end.

Image Source: FundStrat, Bloomberg

Breadth is Deteriorating

Jason Goepfert made the astute observation that “The S&P 500 closed within 0.35% of an all-time high, yet fewer than 20% of NYSE issues rallied today. That’s never happened since at least 1962.” In other words, the market’s continued strength is unlikely as only a handful of very strong stocks currently buoy the market.

Markets are Exhibiting Signs of Froth

When unprofitable stocks experience a significant surge in value, it can indicate frothiness in the equity market. I have found that when the phenomenon of “junk rising to the top” occurs, it suggests that investors may be driven more by speculative and irrational behavior than fundamentals and financial health. For example, Digital World Acquisition (DWAC) and Rumble (RUM) have not achieved a profit within the past five years, yet both are up more than 50% year-to-date.

Bottom Line

Noteworthy AI players like Nvidia and Super Micro Computer have witnessed remarkable increases. However, investors should take a prudent approach, emphasizing interpretation over prediction, awareness of FOMO, and strategic management of open positions.

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The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.