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from the world of economics and financePRAGUE, March 25 (Reuters) - Central Europe's main currencies pushed higher on Monday, with the forint looking for stronger levels before a Hungarian interest rate decision this week.
Eyes will be on Hungary's central bank on Tuesday, when analysts expect policymakers to revert back to a slower pace of policy easing after the forint fell to one-year lows.
The forint EURHUF= edged 0.1% higher on Monday, sitting at 396.60 to the euro at 0954 GMT. It had weakened near to the psychological 400 level earlier this month for the first time since March 2023.
Hungary has had the European Union's highest interest rates and a Reuters poll forecast a cut this week by 75 basis points (bps), to 8.25%, a softer move than a 100-bp move last month.
Some analysts saw chances of both a larger or smaller move than 75 bps.
"In our view, the majority of the Monetary Council will see the usual post-cut currency depreciation as too much of a risk so close to both psychological and technical levels at and above 400," ING said.
"Moreover, with cautiousness being the mantra, with the situation less clear than in February, we see the National Bank of Hungary will be rather safe than sorry."
A weakened crown prevented Czech central bankers from agreeing a faster pace to its easing cycle last week.
The crown EURCZK= was 0.2% stronger at 25.285 to the euro on Monday, in the middle of a range it has bounced around since hitting two-year lows beyond 25.50 a month ago.
In Poland, the zloty EURPLN=, which has posted a slight overall gain so far in 2024, unlike the forint or crown, as Polish rates stay on hold, rose 0.2% in morning trade, to 4.309 per euro. It had traded at four-year highs beyond 4.30 earlier this month.
Currencies were helped higher by a weaker dollar and slightly higher risk appetite in markets. Last week, the U.S. Federal Reserve stuck with projections for three rate cuts by year's end.
in 2024
Czech crown
EURCZK=
Hungary forint
EURHUF=
Polish zloty
Romanian leu
EURRON=
Serbian dinar
EURRSD=
Note: daily change
calculated from
in 2024
.PX
.BUX
.BETI
vs Bund
change in
2-year
+090bps
-6bps
5-year
+140bps
+0bps
10-year
CZ10YT=RR
+157bps
-2bps
2-year
PL2YT=RR
+246bps
+0bps
5-year
PL5YT=RR
+310bps
+0bps
10-year
PL10YT=RR
+322bps
-1bps
9x12
3M interbank
CZKFRAPRIBOR=
HUFFRABUBOR=
PLNFRAWIBOR=
Note: FRA quotes
are for ask prices
(Reporting by Jason Hovet in Prague, Anita Komuves in Budapest and Pawel Florkiewicz in Warsaw; Editing by Alex Richardson)
((jason.hovet@thomsonreuters.com))
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