News

Cincinnati Financial Corporation CINF is scheduled to report first-quarter 2024 earnings on Apr 25, after market close. The insurer delivered an earnings surprise in the last four reported quarters of 2023.

Factors to Note

Increased exposure, better pricing, increased property casualty agency and new business written premiums, higher standard lines new business and higher premiums from Cincinnati Re are likely to have driven premiums in the to-be-reported quarter. We expect earned premiums to be $2.1 billion, up 8.2% from the year-ago reported figure.

Premiums at Personal Lines are likely to have benefited from high net worth clients and an agent-centric model. An increase in agency new business and renewal written premiums are likely to have aided Excess and Surplus lines premiums.

Strong cash flow from operating activities coupled with an improved rate environment, as well as an increase in interest income from fixed-maturity securities, is likely to have aided net investment income. We expect investment income to be $227.7 million.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for first-quarter revenues stands at $2.4 billion, suggesting an increase of 10.4% from the prior-year quarter.

Total benefits and expenses are likely to have increased mainly due to higher insurance losses and contract holders’ benefits and higher underwriting, acquisition and insurance expenses, as well as other operating expenses. We expect total expenses to rise 4.8% to $2.1 billion.

Despite catastrophe losses that induce volatility in profits, underwriting results are likely to benefit from better pricing.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for first-quarter earnings per share is pegged at $1.69, indicating an increase of 89.9% from the prior-year quarter.

What Our Quantitative Model Predicts

Our proven model predicts an earnings beat for Cincinnati Financial this time around. This is because the stock has the right combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) for an earnings beat.

Earnings ESP: Cincinnati Financial has an Earnings ESP of +2.50%. This is because the Most Accurate Estimate of $1.73 is pegged higher than the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.69. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Cincinnati Financial Corporation Price and EPS Surprise

Zacks Rank: Cincinnati Financial currently carries a Zacks Rank #2.

Other Stocks to Consider

Here are three insurance stocks you may want to consider, as our model shows that these also have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat:

Kinsale Capital Group KNSL has an Earnings ESP of +4.35% and a Zacks Rank #2 at present. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for first-quarter 2024 earnings is pegged at $3.33, indicating a year-over-year increase of 36.5%. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

KNSL’s earnings beat estimates in each of the last four reported quarters.

Kemper KMPR has an Earnings ESP of +4.60% and a Zacks Rank of 1. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for first-quarter 2024 earnings is pegged at 87 cents, indicating an increase of 185.3% from the year-ago reported figure.

KMPR earnings beat estimates in each of the last four reported quarters.

Skyward Specialty SKWD has an Earnings ESP of +7.98% and a Zacks Rank of 1. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for first-quarter 2024 earnings stands at 66 cents, indicating an increase of 57.1% from the year-ago reported figure.

SKWD earnings beat estimates in each of the last four reported quarters.

Stay on top of upcoming earnings announcements with the Zacks Earnings Calendar.

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The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.