News

We provide the latest news
from the world of economics and finance

15 May
Why Riskified Stock Jumped Today

Shares of enterprise software company Riskified (NYSE: RSKD) jumped on Wednesday after the company reported financial results for the first quarter and showed meaningful progress in important areas. As of 3:10 p.m. ET today, the stock was up 14%.

A marginal improvement

Riskified's software helps companies detect a more-accurate number of fraudulent purchases, boosting sales and lowering charge-backs, in theory. In the first quarter, the company's merchandise volume was up 17% year over year, and its revenue was up 11%. That's not bad, but the bigger deal is that its profitability is up.

Riskified has used artificial-intelligence (AI) software since before it was cool. But how are investors to know how effective it is? Well, the best thing to watch is the company's gross margin.

When the company's software messes up and approves a bad transaction, Riskified eats the expense. This reduces its gross profit. The good news for investors is that the company's first-quarter gross margin was up to 55%, which was a meaningful improvement from 52% in the same quarter of last year. Therefore, it seems that its AI improved over the last year.

This improvement boosted overall profitability. It just reported record quarterly free cash flow of over $10 million. And that's why the stock is up.

A balanced outlook from here

Improvement is improvement, so give Riskified some credit. That said, the company's gross margin was between 55% and 60% during its early quarters as a public company. Therefore, its software hasn't really shown improvement over the longer term, which is discouraging.

As far as financial risk goes, Riskified's is quite low. The company is debt-free and has $455 million in cash, deposits, and investments. It expects full-year free cash flow of $30 million. Therefore, it can easily stay in business and execute its new $75 million stock buyback plan with plenty of breathing room.

That said, its growth isn't very impressive for a small company -- one would expect gains to come easier. And given that it is a small company, losing just one important customer could be a terrible development. So there is risk here.

Given that Riskified only expects to grow revenue by about 10% this year, I don't think it has given investors much reason to buy. But with the small improvements in the first quarter, there isn't much reason for shareholders to sell, either.

Should you invest $1,000 in Riskified right now?

Before you buy stock in Riskified, consider this:

The Motley Fool Stock Advisor analyst team just identified what they believe are the 10 best stocks for investors to buy now… and Riskified wasn’t one of them. The 10 stocks that made the cut could produce monster returns in the coming years.

Consider when Nvidia made this list on April 15, 2005... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you’d have $559,743!*

Stock Advisor provides investors with an easy-to-follow blueprint for success, including guidance on building a portfolio, regular updates from analysts, and two new stock picks each month. The Stock Advisor service has more than quadrupled the return of S&P 500 since 2002*.

*Stock Advisor returns as of May 13, 2024

Jon Quast has positions in Riskified. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Riskified. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.