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Novo Nordisk (NYSE: NVO) is already a stock that's easy to justify buying. Between the incredible success of Ozempic, tons of demand for its weight loss medicine, and big investments in manufacturing as well as its pipeline, optimism about its future is practically a given among many investors.

And now, there's what could be 80 billion more reasons to believe in its stock rising and rising for years to come. So without further ado, let's explore why the bull thesis for this stock just got a lot stronger.

Shareholders will love to hear this

As you're probably aware, Novo Nordisk's golden goose is its molecule semaglutide, which it sells under the trade names Ozempic, Wegovy, and Rybelsus. Ozempic and Rybelsus are indicated to treat type 2 diabetes, and Wegovy is indicated to treat obesity, but all three products promote significant weight loss. Launching and selling these medicines is a big part of the reason the company's trailing-12-month revenue rose by 64% in the last three years alone, most recently at $35.5 billion.

The market for obesity-fighting drugs is just starting to get exciting, and multiple estimates from Wall Street analysts call for it to reach more than $130 billion in annual sales by 2030, a gargantuan run-up from its size of roughly $6 billion in 2023. Even if the weight loss drugs market only becomes as large as what some of the more conservative estimates call for, which in this case means being in the ballpark of "only" $100 billion in annual sales, it's clear that there's a tremendous and relatively long-lived opportunity for whichever biopharma players can get their products approved for sale.

But there's little reason to expect that the leading medicines of today, like Novo's Wegovy and Eli Lilly's Zepbound, will continue to be the winners in the long run. A plethora of big pharmas and biotechs are actively pursuing many different research and development (R&D) programs to create safer, more effective, and more tolerable therapies. Some of those next-gen candidates are bound to make it to the market, and once the playing field starts to get crowded, they are likely to displace the incumbents to some degree.

Novo's solution to this situation is to continue active development despite the risk that its follow-on programs could cannibalize the market share of its existing drugs. It currently has three programs in phase 3 clinical trials, two in phase 2, and three in phase 1 testing. One of those phase 3 programs called CagriSema is particularly noteworthy because it combines semaglutide, the active ingredient of Wegovy, and another molecule called cagrilintide, which uses a different mechanism of action than semaglutide.

In short, CagriSema could be significantly more powerful than semaglutide alone. And that's why a new report from the market research company Evaluate is estimating that the present value of the CagriSema program could be as much as $80 billion today, on the basis of the revenue that it could bring in during the year 2030, assuming it gets approved. How much revenue did it forecast to reach that outrageously high number, you may ask? A cool $20.2 billion in annual sales.

So if Evaluate's methodology is sound, and if its predictions are proven true, each dollar of expected revenue in 2030 is another reason to buy Novo Nordisk stock.

What's more, within the logic of Evaluate's calculations and forecasts pertaining to the value of all other pharmaceutical assets across all indications, the estimate means that CagriSema is currently the world's most valuable pipeline program by far.

The next closest program in value, Eli Lilly's anti-obesity candidate orforglipron, is currently only expected to register $8.3 billion in annual sales, making for a present value of $34 billion. And that bodes well for Novo's competitive position in the future, to say the least.

Take it with a grain of salt

Novo Nordisk is a favorable stock to buy today for most investors. But before you log in to your investment account and tap the buy button, it's important to temper some of the enthusiasm that these projections may have caused.

Lofty forecasts for the growth of a market, or for the performance of products within a market, are just that: forecasts. The consensus is currently that the market for anti-obesity medicines will be very large. There is little reason to doubt it. Still, the further away the time horizon of a projection, the harder it is to get the details correct.

There are quite a few assumptions implied by Evaluate's figures on CagriSema. Some of those may be accurate, and others may not be. Phase 3 clinical trial data on the program's performance are not yet available, and when they are, perhaps as soon as later this year, it'll doubtlessly change the calculus for how much market share the candidate could ultimately secure, if it is approved at all.

In other words, while it is reasonable to expect Novo Nordisk to control a large slice of the market in 2030, don't bet the farm on it being the top dog. Of course, if you're looking for another reason to buy the stock, Evaluate's perspective is another sign that it's smart to be bullish.

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Alex Carchidi has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool recommends Novo Nordisk. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

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